It was never going to be easy for Kamala Harris to become the United States’ 47th president.
There remains a small percentage of Americans who will not vote for a Black presidential candidate, a small percentage that will not vote for a woman presidential candidate, and a small percentage that will not vote for a Black woman presidential candidate.
These small percentages add up in a tight race.
Add to that the perils of incumbency in the current political context, the failure of the political left across the Western world to express sufficient empathy for the struggles of young and working-class men, and the Trump campaign’s moderation of its stance on abortion, and it seems to me that Harris’ campaign needed to be almost perfect to have a chance.
I’m not convinced that more time would have helped.
Through my outsider’s lens, Harris’ best bet was to exploit the natural excitement around her candidacy – and the contrasts between her and Joe Biden – for as long as possible, and then hope that enough Americans had made up their minds before it inevitably dissipated.
When the election pitted Trump against Biden, America’s focus was on President Biden’s suitability and capacity for four more years in office as a frail 81-year-old man. When Biden withdrew, attention moved to his increasingly erratic 78-year-old opponent.
Trump repels at least as many Americans as he attracts, and the official debate between him and Harris enhanced her strengths and exposed his weaknesses.
If you follow my line of thinking, the turning point in the election might well have been the vice-presidential debate between the until then much maligned Senator JD Vance and the untested yet earnest Governor Tim Walz.
Typically, vice-presidential debates are meaningless, but the way Vance won was, at least to me, critical.
As Anthony Zurcher of the BBC put it: “If Vance was picked because he puts ideological meat on the bones of Trump’s conservative populism, on Tuesday night he put a polite, humble face on them, as well.”
Vance gave undecided Americans who were disappointed with the Biden administration yet also uncomfortable with Trump himself permission to see past the former and future president’s many flaws.
Once the ballot question was no longer Trump’s personal suitability, Harris didn’t have much of a chance.
Now that the election has been decided, I am surprised by how little attention has been given to Vance more broadly, both in the popular press and within Canadian political circles.
Donald Trump is an old man whose health is deteriorating.
He did not enjoy parts of being president the last time, and I find it hard to believe that he will like the work of the presidency any more in 2025.
Once his legal battles are behind him, the office of the president will become increasingly less valuable to him personally as well.
Indeed, even if he is healthy enough to remain in office past his 82nd birthday, I suspect that others will do most of the real work.
Vice-presidents are rarely powerful figures in US politics, but there have been exceptions.
JD Vance has impressive political instincts. As inexperienced as he might be in US politics, he has managed to get himself elected as a senator and now as vice-president in little more than two years.
I’m going to spend part of the winter break reading Hillbilly Elegy.
I hope that at least some people in the Prime Minister’s Office and in the Office of the Leader of the Opposition do the same.
***
On this Remembrance Day, I hope you can take some time to reflect not just on the contributions of members of our Canadian Armed Forces but also on those of their families. If each of us could find our own way of demonstrating a similar commitment to service and a willingness to sacrifice, Canada would be a much better place.
***
To be notified of my next post, follow me on X (Twitter) @achapnick or on LinkedIn at https://www.linkedin.com/in/adam-chapnick/.
You can subscribe to my newsletter at https://buttondown.email/achapnick.
There remains a small percentage of Americans who will not vote for a Black presidential candidate, a small percentage that will not vote for a woman presidential candidate, and a small percentage that will not vote for a Black woman presidential candidate.
These small percentages add up in a tight race.
Add to that the perils of incumbency in the current political context, the failure of the political left across the Western world to express sufficient empathy for the struggles of young and working-class men, and the Trump campaign’s moderation of its stance on abortion, and it seems to me that Harris’ campaign needed to be almost perfect to have a chance.
I’m not convinced that more time would have helped.
Through my outsider’s lens, Harris’ best bet was to exploit the natural excitement around her candidacy – and the contrasts between her and Joe Biden – for as long as possible, and then hope that enough Americans had made up their minds before it inevitably dissipated.
When the election pitted Trump against Biden, America’s focus was on President Biden’s suitability and capacity for four more years in office as a frail 81-year-old man. When Biden withdrew, attention moved to his increasingly erratic 78-year-old opponent.
Trump repels at least as many Americans as he attracts, and the official debate between him and Harris enhanced her strengths and exposed his weaknesses.
If you follow my line of thinking, the turning point in the election might well have been the vice-presidential debate between the until then much maligned Senator JD Vance and the untested yet earnest Governor Tim Walz.
Typically, vice-presidential debates are meaningless, but the way Vance won was, at least to me, critical.
As Anthony Zurcher of the BBC put it: “If Vance was picked because he puts ideological meat on the bones of Trump’s conservative populism, on Tuesday night he put a polite, humble face on them, as well.”
Vance gave undecided Americans who were disappointed with the Biden administration yet also uncomfortable with Trump himself permission to see past the former and future president’s many flaws.
Once the ballot question was no longer Trump’s personal suitability, Harris didn’t have much of a chance.
Now that the election has been decided, I am surprised by how little attention has been given to Vance more broadly, both in the popular press and within Canadian political circles.
Donald Trump is an old man whose health is deteriorating.
He did not enjoy parts of being president the last time, and I find it hard to believe that he will like the work of the presidency any more in 2025.
Once his legal battles are behind him, the office of the president will become increasingly less valuable to him personally as well.
Indeed, even if he is healthy enough to remain in office past his 82nd birthday, I suspect that others will do most of the real work.
Vice-presidents are rarely powerful figures in US politics, but there have been exceptions.
JD Vance has impressive political instincts. As inexperienced as he might be in US politics, he has managed to get himself elected as a senator and now as vice-president in little more than two years.
I’m going to spend part of the winter break reading Hillbilly Elegy.
I hope that at least some people in the Prime Minister’s Office and in the Office of the Leader of the Opposition do the same.
***
On this Remembrance Day, I hope you can take some time to reflect not just on the contributions of members of our Canadian Armed Forces but also on those of their families. If each of us could find our own way of demonstrating a similar commitment to service and a willingness to sacrifice, Canada would be a much better place.
***
To be notified of my next post, follow me on X (Twitter) @achapnick or on LinkedIn at https://www.linkedin.com/in/adam-chapnick/.
You can subscribe to my newsletter at https://buttondown.email/achapnick.
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