I read Paul Wells’ new book, Justin Trudeau on the Ropes: Governing in Troubled Times, the moment it arrived as part of my Sutherland Quarterly subscription.
I think Wells is one of the best political journalists in the country, and I always learn from what he has to say.
The book didn’t sit quite right with me when I finished it, so I left it for a week and re-read it today. It still isn’t sitting right.
Wells highlights two factors that he believes help explain the sorry state of the Trudeau government.
The first is a comment by David Axelrod, one of President Barack Obama’s senior advisors, at a Liberal convention in Halifax in 2018.
In a conversation with Trudeau’s then principal secretary, Gerald Butts, Axelrod suggested that in dark political times, “You have to be prepared to push back” (50).
According to Wells, with this statement, Axelrod gave the Liberals’ permission to abandon the sunny ways of their 2015 election campaign.
The second factor is an overwhelming increase in what political scientists call “affective polarization,” or, in Wells’ words, “partisan disdain for the other side” (54).
In such an environment, it made sense for the Liberals to focus on consolidating their base rather than attempting to convince swing voters, or their opponents, to come around to their ideas.
Together, these factors transformed Trudeau into an unfeeling, out of touch, close-minded leader, a far cry from the person Canadians thought they had chosen to govern them in 2015.
Even if Wells is right in the macro-sense, I can’t help but think he’s left something important out.
At some point between 2018 and 2023, Justin Trudeau’s marriage collapsed.
(Wells’ analysis makes a single, passing reference to family troubles - Trudeau’s need to decompress alone after a day of public events “didn’t always make him popular at home” (77) - but never links it to the prime minister’s change in outlook.)
Based on how often Trudeau credits Sophie Gregoire for being his voice of reason in his memoir, Common Ground, I cannot imagine a scenario in which the break-down of the prime minister’s marriage did not have a profound effect on his governing style.
This theory would also help explain why the Liberal government seemed to sleep through much of 2022 and 2023.
From a communications point of view, the Prime Minister’s Office managed Trudeau’s separation brilliantly.
There were no leaks, and media coverage of the announcement was both civil and fleeting.
That success, however, likely came at the expense of everything else the PMO was supposed to be doing.
Over the last 9 months, the Trudeau government has made countless efforts to reboot (a Cabinet shuffle, a Cabinet retreat, a budget, a new executive communications director, a new policy expert).
Based on the polls, nothing has worked.
I wonder what might have happened if, rather than claiming infallibility, demonizing the opposition, and tinkering around the edges of his government, the prime minister had apologized to Canadians – for being human.
Could he not have explained that it took him a long time to realize how distracted he had become by the challenges he was facing in his personal life?
He might then have announced that he was recommitting to governing in the best interests of all Canadians, no matter who they planned to vote for.
Such humility would have been a breath of fresh air in what has become an unbearably toxic political environment.
***
For more on this issue, why not take a look at Common Ground. In a couple of weeks, you’ll be able to contrast it with Andrew Lawton’s forthcoming biography, Pierre Poilievre: A Political Life. And be sure to check out Paul Wells’ Substack - it’s excellent.
***
To be notified of my next post, follow me on X (Twitter) @achapnick or on LinkedInat https://www.linkedin.com/in/adam-chapnick/.
You can subscribe to my newsletter at https://buttondown.email/achapnick.
I think Wells is one of the best political journalists in the country, and I always learn from what he has to say.
The book didn’t sit quite right with me when I finished it, so I left it for a week and re-read it today. It still isn’t sitting right.
Wells highlights two factors that he believes help explain the sorry state of the Trudeau government.
The first is a comment by David Axelrod, one of President Barack Obama’s senior advisors, at a Liberal convention in Halifax in 2018.
In a conversation with Trudeau’s then principal secretary, Gerald Butts, Axelrod suggested that in dark political times, “You have to be prepared to push back” (50).
According to Wells, with this statement, Axelrod gave the Liberals’ permission to abandon the sunny ways of their 2015 election campaign.
The second factor is an overwhelming increase in what political scientists call “affective polarization,” or, in Wells’ words, “partisan disdain for the other side” (54).
In such an environment, it made sense for the Liberals to focus on consolidating their base rather than attempting to convince swing voters, or their opponents, to come around to their ideas.
Together, these factors transformed Trudeau into an unfeeling, out of touch, close-minded leader, a far cry from the person Canadians thought they had chosen to govern them in 2015.
Even if Wells is right in the macro-sense, I can’t help but think he’s left something important out.
At some point between 2018 and 2023, Justin Trudeau’s marriage collapsed.
(Wells’ analysis makes a single, passing reference to family troubles - Trudeau’s need to decompress alone after a day of public events “didn’t always make him popular at home” (77) - but never links it to the prime minister’s change in outlook.)
Based on how often Trudeau credits Sophie Gregoire for being his voice of reason in his memoir, Common Ground, I cannot imagine a scenario in which the break-down of the prime minister’s marriage did not have a profound effect on his governing style.
This theory would also help explain why the Liberal government seemed to sleep through much of 2022 and 2023.
From a communications point of view, the Prime Minister’s Office managed Trudeau’s separation brilliantly.
There were no leaks, and media coverage of the announcement was both civil and fleeting.
That success, however, likely came at the expense of everything else the PMO was supposed to be doing.
Over the last 9 months, the Trudeau government has made countless efforts to reboot (a Cabinet shuffle, a Cabinet retreat, a budget, a new executive communications director, a new policy expert).
Based on the polls, nothing has worked.
I wonder what might have happened if, rather than claiming infallibility, demonizing the opposition, and tinkering around the edges of his government, the prime minister had apologized to Canadians – for being human.
Could he not have explained that it took him a long time to realize how distracted he had become by the challenges he was facing in his personal life?
He might then have announced that he was recommitting to governing in the best interests of all Canadians, no matter who they planned to vote for.
Such humility would have been a breath of fresh air in what has become an unbearably toxic political environment.
***
For more on this issue, why not take a look at Common Ground. In a couple of weeks, you’ll be able to contrast it with Andrew Lawton’s forthcoming biography, Pierre Poilievre: A Political Life. And be sure to check out Paul Wells’ Substack - it’s excellent.
***
To be notified of my next post, follow me on X (Twitter) @achapnick or on LinkedInat https://www.linkedin.com/in/adam-chapnick/.
You can subscribe to my newsletter at https://buttondown.email/achapnick.
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